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Risk Analysis |
The term “Risk Analysis” is used on many occasions quite loosely and with different meanings. On some occasions it is being confused with the sensitivity analysis made with Excel spreadsheets, a very limited procedure indeed. In our case, we refer to quantitative risk analysis which estimates the probability of certain events occurring and its corresponding impact, economic or otherwise. |
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Enter the simulation technique. A simulation model allows you to peek into the future, by testing hundreds or thousands of possible outcomes, and the probability of their occurrence. In fact, we could say a simulation model maps the future, telling us the probability of a certain occurrence taking place, under various confidence levels.
After deciding to contract our service, and once the results are in, you will be able to answer a potential investor, for example, that the probability of achieving or surpassing the likely case scenario is 84%. This will allow investors, your boss or yourself to make an informed decision. Conversely, you may find out, that the certitude of the most likely case scenario is 12%. This you will of course learn before you make the presentation or deliver your business plan. While such a result is not what you expected and would surely send you back to the drawing board, it will save you time, money, embarrassment, your reputation and even your job, depending on the circumstances.
If you want to stand out and differentiate your report, presentation, analysis or business plan from the rest, you need the help of a simulation model.
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Baltek, Inc. offers you a highly sophisticated technique used by the most professional companies in the world, at an affordable price. With our analysis, your business plan or presentation for example, will have the necessary impact to help convince your investors, bank or boss that they should go along and accept your conclusions. This can mean funds made available to finance your start-up, money in the till for your company needs, or even a very successful presentation to your boss, which could result in a promotion. |
One thing is for sure: Your inclusion of a simulation analysis in your plan or presentation will set you light years apart from other plans being considered, and other presentation being evaluated.
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By activating the dials and sliders on the interactive dashboard below (Five years - P&L statements), the yearly EAT (Earnings after taxes) as well as the five year total EAT amounts exhibited by the progress bars and gauge respectively, will change. Each time one (or more) component is moved, a new possible scenario is created. This exercise illustrates the great number of possible scenarios (in this case, EAT) a businessman may have to confront. A risk analysis would estimate which are the scenarios most likely to occur, under various confidence levels. |
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The risk analysis package our company is currently offering includes the Risk Analysis Report and the Investors Ongoing Support service.
Some people do not believe their company needs such an analysis, mostly because they do not seem to grasp the real benefits behind it. They do not realize that, for example, this technology is the foundation of the insurance business, nor that we make all type of decisions daily, such as what we will wear tomorrow based on the weather forecast. So, how important or necessary is this analysis for my company or project? Please click on the link for answers to your question. |
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